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Hillary Clinton’s Mistake on Taxes

Hillary Clinton speaking to supporters after the debate on Monday.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

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Hillary Clinton obviously won Monday’s debate in a rout. But she also had some rough early moments. One of them offers an important lesson for Democrats.

First, a little history: For decades, Republicans owned the debate over taxes. They were the party that wanted to cut your taxes. Democrats, in the minds of many voters, wanted to raise taxes to pay for dubious programs.

In 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama shrewdly flipped the story. He explained that while his opponent, John McCain, was offering a larger total tax cut, the bulk of it would go to the rich. Obama would focus his tax cuts on everyone but the rich – and give those families more as a result.

A poll shortly before the election found that voters understood the distinction, which caused Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, to say, “It’s a stunning reversal of fortune on a core Republican strength.”

This year, Clinton has made the mistake of returning to the Democrats’ old ground. She has proposed raising taxes on the affluent and leaving them virtually unchanged for everyone else. Trump is offering a huge tax cut for the well off.

At the debate, he exploited the issue. “You are going to approve one of the biggest tax increases in history,” he said. “And by the way, my tax cut is the biggest since Ronald Reagan.”

She then was left to criticize his plan for increasing the deficit – weak tea at a time when most Americans are more worried about their own financial security than the deficit.

In part, her problem was rhetorical. She could have pointed out that Trump’s plan would likely increase taxes on the middle class, as a recent analysis by Lily Batchelder of New York University found.

But Clinton’s campaign has also made a policy mistake, in my view, by not offering a specific tax cut for the middle class and poor. There’s a good argument for one, given the weak income growth of the last 15 years.

Republicans were able to win the tax debate for years because Democrats let them muddle the issue. It’s an unforced and unnecessary error.

I invite you to follow me on Twitter (@DLeonhardt) and join me on Facebook.

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